1361 - 採購思維與投資決策

From Sourcing to Investing

教育目標 Course Target

本課程除了延續採購談判課,圍繞審查公司的投資價值,來幫助你實現目標。越是在複雜的經濟與市場環境下,更理性地守護自己得來不易的財富。除此之外,要幫助同學對投資與理財有基本認識外,何謂資產和負債,更將深入探討風險與報酬、投資組合管理、投資組合績效評估及其他投資學理論。我將過去採購心法來看待投資項目並結合巴菲特、富爸爸窮爸爸的作者羅伯特.清崎、等數十位大師的著作,使同學運用理論工具及心法,建立正確的投資觀念,提昇自身財務決策的能力。
第一,投資是一個發現自我的過程。工作其實也是一個發現自我並完善自我的過程。好的公司本身會創造價值,投資者可以透過投資持有好公司的股票,來分享好公司所創造的價值。弱水三千,你作為投資者,只取一瓢飲。
採購跟投資的關聯是,做投資就像買東西,買東西不能假設自己買的公司就是好的,而是需要不斷去驗證。

第二,安全邊際。投資的本質是對未來的預測,但人無法精準地預測未來,只能得到一個概率。例如,雖然氣象預報技術不斷進步,但也只能說明天有80%的概率會下雨,而不會說明天一定會下雨。因此,投資者需要預留出安全邊際。

第三,市場先生。市場先生是巴菲特的老師格雷厄姆提出的一個比喻。這個比喻的意思是,你要把市場看作一個情緒不穩定的人。每天一上班,他都會給你報一個價格。如果他今天心情很好,對未來充滿樂觀,就會開出高價;但如果他心情不好,充滿悲觀,就會開出低價。對待市場先生,不能被他的情緒所影響。你需要心中有數,清楚什麼樣的價格是合理的。

第四,能力圈。投資人需要通過長期的學習,建立一個屬於自己的能力圈,然後在能力圈範圍內進行投資。這也是巴菲特經常強調的一個概念。每個人都有自己的能力圈,巴菲特曾說過一句話:「沒有邊界的能力就不是能力。」因為沒有人可以無所不知、無所不能。對於投資人而言,建立能力圈的過程,就是弄清楚公司為什麼賺錢、怎麼賺錢以及未來能賺多少錢的過程。

In addition to continuing the procurement negotiation course, this course focuses on reviewing the company's investment value to help you achieve your goals. The more complex the economic and market environment is, the more rational it is to protect one's hard-earned wealth. In addition, it will help students gain a basic understanding of investment and financial management, as well as what assets and liabilities are. It will also provide in-depth discussions on risk and return, portfolio management, portfolio performance evaluation and other investment theories. I use the past purchasing mentality to view investment projects and combine it with the works of Buffett, Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, and dozens of other masters, so that students can use theoretical tools and mental methods to establish correct investment concepts and improve their financial decision-making abilities.
First, investing is a process of self-discovery. Work is actually a process of self-discovery and self-improvement. Good companies themselves create value, and investors can share in the value created by good companies by investing in shares of good companies. The weak water is three thousand, and as an investor, you only take one scoop to drink.
The connection between procurement and investment is that investing is like buying something. When buying something, you cannot assume that the company you buy is good, but you need to constantly verify it.

Second, the margin of safety. The essence of investment is prediction of the future, but people cannot predict the future accurately and can only get a probability. For example, although weather forecasting technology continues to improve, it can only say that there is an 80% probability of raining tomorrow, but it cannot say that it will definitely rain tomorrow. Therefore, investors need to allow a margin of safety.

Third, Mr. Market. Mr. Market is a metaphor proposed by Graham, Buffett’s teacher. What this metaphor means is that you have to think of the market as an emotionally unstable person. Every day when he comes to work, he will quote you a price. If he is in a good mood today and is optimistic about the future, he will offer a high price; but if he is in a bad mood and is pessimistic, he will offer a low price. When dealing with Mr. Market, you cannot be affected by his emotions. You need to have an idea of ​​what price is reasonable.

Fourth, circle of competence. Investors need to establish their own circle of competence through long-term study, and then invest within the circle of competence. This is also a concept that Buffett often emphasizes. Everyone has his own circle of competence. Buffett once said: "Ability without boundaries is not ability." Because no one can know everything and be omnipotent. For investors, the process of establishing a circle of competence is the process of figuring out why the company makes money, how it makes money, and how much money it can make in the future.

參考書目 Reference Books

1. 馬克思的資本論
2. 巴菲特的滾雪球
3. 富爸爸窮爸爸
4. 大師的主要觀點
班傑明.葛拉漢、
菲利普.費雪(Philip A. Fisher)
查爾斯.蒙格(Charles Munger)
成長派普萊斯
比爾.米勒
橡樹資本創辦人:瑞.達利歐
霍華德.馬斯克等數十位等投資大師簡介

1. Marx’s Capital
2. Buffett’s snowball
3. Rich Dad Poor Dad
4. The master’s main points
Benjamin. Graham,
Philip. Philip A. Fisher
Charles. Charles Munger
Growing Price
Bill Miller
Founder of Oaktree Capital: Ray Dalio
Introduction to Howard Musk and dozens of other investment gurus

評分方式 Grading

評分項目
Grading Method
配分比例
Percentage
說明
Description
出席率
Attendance
20 隨機點名
期中考
midterm exam
20 take home exam
期末考
final exam
20 take home exam
個人思考題成績
Personal reflection question scores
20 著重個人思考後的成績
團體思考題成績
Group think question scores
5 著重團隊思考後的成績

授課大綱 Course Plan

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課程資訊 Course Information

基本資料 Basic Information

  • 課程代碼 Course Code: 1361
  • 學分 Credit: 0-3
  • 上課時間 Course Time:
    Wednesday/5,6,7[M233]
  • 授課教師 Teacher:
    張世其
  • 修課班級 Class:
    國貿系2-4
選課狀態 Enrollment Status

目前選課人數 Current Enrollment: 20 人

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