「隨機法則」這門課所描述的就是面對不確定世界的理性抉擇，換句話說就是應對於天地間確定與隨機模式的思考判斷。你可以認為這是一門科普教育的課程，一門科學推論的過程或者更可說是一門博雅教育課程。要抗拒直覺的洪流是件困難的事，人的心智生來就是要為每件事情的發生找個理由，因此很難接受由不相干的隨機因素造成的影響。本課程擬運用"對話智慧代理人"GPT-4探討因隨機法則而引申的相關問題，提高獲取訊息的效率並提出新穎的想法，再由參與者據此解決問題。The course "Laws of Randomness" describes rational decisions in the face of an uncertain world. In other words, it is the thinking and judgment of deterministic and random patterns in the world. You can think of this as a popular science education course, a process of scientific inference, or rather a liberal arts education course. It is difficult to resist the torrent of intuition. The human mind is designed to find a reason for everything that happens, so it is difficult to accept the influence of irrelevant random factors. This course plans to use the "Dialogue Intelligent Agent" GPT-4 to explore related issues arising from random rules, improve the efficiency of obtaining information and propose novel ideas, and then let participants solve the problems accordingly.
大自然蘊含著無限的可能，人的一生與環境、群體間之激盪互動影響，更能體驗天地浩瀚，令人有蒼茫無奈之慨。晚近科技文明的發展，使得人們面對不確定的未來，有著極其深刻的感觸與體驗。有些命運你以為是必然，其實只是偶然；有些機會你以為是偶然，其實是必然。近三十年的教學生涯中，我常告訴學生，人生一切都是機率問題而不是非0即1的二元分類，只是在0、1之間所擺蕩出的無限人生之旅，充滿著令人嘆為觀止的知識經驗與智慧。「隨機法則」這門課所描述的就是面對不確定世界的理性抉擇，換句話說就是應對於天地間確定與隨機模式的思考判斷。你可以認為這是一門科普教育的課程，一門科學推論的過程或者更可說是一門博雅教育課程。
要抗拒直覺的洪流是件困難的事。人的心智生來就是要為每件事情的發生找個理由，因此很難接受由不相干的隨機因素造成的影響。於是，第一步就是要認知到，有時候成功或失敗並不是出於特別偉大的技巧或是特別的無能，而是「偶然的狀況」。隨機過程是自然界的基本原理，在我們生活中更是隨處可見，但是大多數人並不了解，也很少想到這些過程。事業能成功，投資能賺錢，一部電影會賣座，一本書會暢銷，有多少是出於運氣？不管是人生之路，還是發生在你我周遭之事，全都像「隨機式的醉漢走路」！現實世界發生的許多事，都是隨機的，就像浮游在液體中的花粉微粒，會不斷的讓一個接著一個的隨機事件推向東、推向西；我們從校園到職場的人生歷程，或是高爾夫球從第一洞到第十八洞的軌跡，股票市場的漲漲跌跌，都是如此。各種出乎意外的事件遲早會發生，但終歸會到達某個位置──這正是「醉漢走路，隨機漫步」這個模型代表的涵義。
此一講題在嘗試著打破我們一般的慣性思維，引導我們用不同的角度去思考；發生在我們身上的大小事，都是隨機因素的結果，而這些隨機因素的影響力，並不會比我們的能力高低、勤奮與否與機會的掌握來的小。這並非說能力無關緊要，能力正是增加成功機會的因素之一。各領域的成功人士都幾乎不例外的屬於特定一類人，那些不斷嘗試的人。
課程內容讓同學瞭解什麼叫做大數法則、誤差的常態、混沌中的秩序、蝴蝶效應、確認偏誤與常態的意外。為何有時候事情就是會出錯，成功之路滿佈意外？什麼是已知的未知，未知的未知？「林來瘋」現象有可能再發生嗎？這門學科對於知識的增長、客觀思維的判斷及理性的推理當助益良多。有廣泛的知識背景方能觸類旁通，舉一反三，激發創意的潛能。
Nature contains infinite possibilities. The stimulating interaction between human life, the environment, and groups can make people experience the vastness of the world and make people feel helpless. The recent development of scientific and technological civilization has given people extremely profound feelings and experiences when facing an uncertain future. Some fates you think are inevitable are actually just accidents; some opportunities you think are accidents are actually inevitable. In my teaching career of nearly thirty years, I often tell students that everything in life is a matter of probability rather than a binary classification of either 0 or 1. It is just an infinite journey of life swinging between 0 and 1, full of interesting things. Amazing knowledge, experience and wisdom. The course "Laws of Randomness" describes rational decisions in the face of an uncertain world. In other words, it is the thinking and judgment of deterministic and random patterns in the world. You can think of this as a popular science education course, a process of scientific inference, or rather a liberal arts education course.
It is difficult to resist the flood of intuition. The human mind is wired to find a reason for everything that happens, so it is difficult to accept the influence of irrelevant random factors. Therefore, the first step is to realize that sometimes success or failure is not due to particularly great skills or special incompetence, but "accidental circumstances." Random processes are the basic principles of nature and can be seen everywhere in our lives, but most people do not understand them and rarely think about these processes. A career can be successful, an investment can make money, a movie can be a hit, a book can be a bestseller, how much of it is due to luck? Whether it is the path of life or the things that happen around you and me, they are all like a "random drunken walk"! Many things that happen in the real world are random, just like pollen particles floating in liquid, which will continue to push one random event east or west; our life journey from campus to workplace, or This is true of the trajectory of a golf ball from the first to the eighteenth hole, and of the rise and fall of the stock market. All kinds of unexpected events will happen sooner or later, but they will eventually reach a certain place--this is what the model of "drunk man walks, random walk" represents.
This topic is trying to break our general inertial thinking and guide us to think from different angles; everything that happens to us, big or small, is the result of random factors, and the influence of these random factors is not greater than Our ability, diligence and grasp of opportunities are insignificant. This is not to say that ability is irrelevant; ability is one of the factors that increase your chances of success. Successful people in all fields almost without exception belong to a certain type of people, those who keep trying.
The course content allows students to understand what is the law of large numbers, the normality of errors, order in chaos, the butterfly effect, confirmation bias and normal accidents. Why do things sometimes just go wrong and the road to success is full of surprises? What are the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns? Is it possible that the "Linsanity" phenomenon will happen again? This subject should be of great help to the growth of knowledge, objective thinking judgment and rational reasoning. Only with a broad knowledge background can we draw parallels, draw inferences from one instance and draw inferences about other cases, and stimulate our creative potential.
王碧、牟昀譯 (2013)，熵的神秘國度，天下文化出版社
石堅、李竹論譯(2004)，統計與真理-怎樣運用偶然性，原著C.R.Rao，九章出版社
吳今培，李雪岩(2023)，零基礎量子力學，崧燁文化事業有限公司
胡守仁譯（2009）隨機法則-左右你我的命運和機會，天下文化書坊
高英哲譯(2017)，機率思考(Chancing IT, R. Mathews)-大數據時代，不犯錯的決斷武器，大牌出版社
陳宣、涂瑋瑛譯(2020)，骰子能扮演上帝嗎？(Do dice play God？I. Steward)-18個不確定性的數學思考，商周出版社
馮啟思（2010）像統計學家一樣思考，高寶國際公司台灣分公司
張天蓉(2018)從擲骰子到阿爾法狗-趣談概率，全國新華書店
網路相關資料
Translated by Wang Bi and Mou Yun (2013), The Mysterious Country of Entropy, Tianxia Culture Publishing House
Translated by Shi Jian and Li Zhu (2004), Statistics and Truth-How to Use Chance, original work by C.R. Rao, Jiuzhang Publishing House
Wu Jinpei, Li Xueyan (2023), Zero-Basic Quantum Mechanics, Songye Cultural Enterprise Co., Ltd.
Translated by Hu Shouren (2009) The Law of Random - Determining the Destiny and Opportunities of You and Me, Tianxia Culture Bookstore
Translated by Gao Yingzhe (2017), Chancing IT, R. Mathews-In the era of big data, a weapon for decision-making without making mistakes, big-name publishing house
Translated by Chen Xuan and Tu Weiying (2020), Can Dice Play God? (Do dice play God? I. Steward)-18 mathematical reflections on uncertainty, Shangzhou Press
Feng Qisi (2010) Think like a statistician, KBA Taiwan Branch
Zhang Tianrong (2018) From Dice to Alpha Dog-Interesting Talk about Probability, National Xinhua Bookstore
Internet related information
| 評分項目 Grading Method | 配分比例 Grading percentage | 說明 Description |
|---|---|---|
| 報告報告 report |
40 | |
| 作業作業 Homework |
30 | |
| 課堂參與課堂參與 class participation |
30 |
