本課程主要是針對時間數列分析做一廣泛介紹,提供學生了解時間數列模型在經濟模型中的使用，希望學生在學習的過程中能培養研究的能力。從AR、MA、及GARCH模型開始介紹,包括模型的認定及其內涵。在時間數列的應用上需注意那些事項。This course mainly provides a broad introduction to time series analysis and provides students with an understanding of the use of time series models in economic models. It is hoped that students can develop research capabilities during the learning process. Start with the introduction of AR, MA, and GARCH models, including the identification and connotation of the models. Things to note when applying time series.
本課程主要是針對時間數列分析做一廣泛介紹,提供學生了解時間數列模型在經濟模型中的使用，希望學生在學習的過程中能培養研究的能力。內容包含時差運算子的使用、差分方程式、穩定及非穩定數列的分析，以ARMA(p,q)為基礎的概似函數(conditional及exact)估計及譜系分析。
This course mainly provides a broad introduction to time series analysis and provides students with an understanding of the use of time series models in economic models. It is hoped that students can develop research capabilities during the learning process. The content includes the use of time difference operators, difference equations, analysis of stable and unstable sequence, estimation of approximate functions (conditional and exact) based on ARMA (p, q) and genealogy analysis.
Hamilton, J. D. (1994), Time Series Analysis.
Reference books:
Fuller, W. A. (1996), Introduction to statistical Time series.
Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel (1994) Time Series Analysis Forecasting and control.
Priestly, M.B. (1981), Spectral Analysis and Time Series.
Greene, W. H. (2008), Econometric analysis.
Reference papers:
1.Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J., 1987, Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimatoin and Testing, Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 251-276.
2.Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A. (1981), Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Econometrica 49, 1057-1072.
3.Phillips, P.C.B. (1987), Time series regression with a unit root. Econometrica 55, 277-301.
4.Johansen, S.(1991), Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models, Econometrica 59, 1551-1580.
5.Nelson, Daniel B. (1991), Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Assst Returns：A New Approach, Econometrica, Vol.59, 347-370.
6.White, H. (1980), A heteroscedasticity consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test of heteroscedasticity, Econometrica, vol. 48, 1980, pp. 817-81
Hamilton, J. D. (1994), Time Series Analysis.
Reference books:
Fuller, W. A. (1996), Introduction to statistical Time series.
Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel (1994) Time Series Analysis Forecasting and control.
Priestly, M.B. (1981), Spectral Analysis and Time Series.
Greene, W. H. (2008), Econometric analysis.
Reference papers:
1.Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J., 1987, Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimatoin and Testing, Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 251-276.
2.Dickey, D. A., and Fuller, W. A. (1981), Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Econometrica 49, 1057-1072.
3.Phillips, P.C.B. (1987), Time series regression with a unit root. Econometrica 55, 277-301.
4.Johansen, S. (1991), Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models, Econometrica 59, 1551-1580.
5.Nelson, Daniel B. (1991), Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Assst Returns: A New Approach, Econometrica, Vol.59, 347-370.
6.White, H. (1980), A heteroscedasticity consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test of heteroscedasticity, Econometrica, vol. 48, 1980, pp. 817-81
| 評分項目 Grading Method | 配分比例 Grading percentage | 說明 Description |
|---|---|---|
| 課堂參與及資料分析操作課堂參與及資料分析操作 Class participation and data analysis operations |
30 | |
| 平時作業報告平時作業報告 Daily homework report |
30 | |
| 期末報告及期末測驗期末報告及期末測驗 Final report and final test |
40 |
