大自然蘊含著無限的可能，人的一生與環境、群體間之激盪互動影響，更能體驗天地浩瀚，令人有蒼茫無奈之慨。晚近科技文明的發展，使得人們面對不確定的未來，有著極其深刻的感觸與體驗。有些命運你以為是必然，其實只是偶然；有些機會你以為是偶然，其實是必然。近三十年的教學生涯中，我常告訴學生，人生一切都是機率問題而不是非0即1的二元分類，只是在0、1之間所演變出的無限人生之旅，充滿著令人嘆為觀止的知識經驗與智慧。所以「偶然與必然」這門課所描述的就是面對不確定世界的理性抉擇，換句話說就是應對於天地間確定與隨機模式的思考判斷。你可以認為這是一門科普教育的課程，一門科學推論的過程或者更可說是一門博雅教育課程。
事業能成功，投資能賺錢，一部電影會賣座，一本書會暢銷，有多少是出於運氣？不管是人生之路，還是發生在你我周遭之事，全都像「醉漢走路」！現實世界發生的許多事，都是隨機的，就像浮游在液體中的花粉微粒，會不斷的讓一個接著一個的隨機事件推向東、推向西；我們從校園到職場的人生歷程，或是高爾夫球從第一洞到第十八洞的軌跡，股票市場的漲漲跌跌，都是如此。各種出乎意外的事件遲早會發生，但終歸會到達某個位置──這正是「醉漢走路」這個模型代表的涵義。
EMBA同學不少人已有職場經驗及學有專長，這門學科對於知識的增長、客觀思維的判斷及理性的推理當助益良多。藉由本課程的啟發，同學當能明白隨機、機遇是怎麼一回事，你也會思考機會、命運、偶然、必然的意義，重新思索各種決策和理論，看穿表象看清真相。有廣泛的知識背景方能觸類旁通，舉一反三，激發創意的潛能。Nature contains infinite possibilities. The stimulating interaction between human life, the environment, and groups can make people experience the vastness of the world and make people feel helpless. The recent development of scientific and technological civilization has given people extremely profound feelings and experiences when facing an uncertain future. Some fates you think are inevitable are actually just accidents; some opportunities you think are accidents are actually inevitable. In my teaching career of nearly thirty years, I often tell students that everything in life is a matter of probability rather than a binary classification of either 0 or 1. It is just an infinite journey of life evolving between 0 and 1, full of interesting things. Amazing knowledge, experience and wisdom. Therefore, what the course "Chance and Necessity" describes is rational decision-making in the face of an uncertain world. In other words, it is the thinking and judgment of dealing with deterministic and random patterns in the world. You can think of this as a popular science education course, a process of scientific inference, or rather a liberal arts education course.
A career can be successful, an investment can make money, a movie can be a hit, a book can be a bestseller, how much of it is due to luck? Whether it is the path of life or the things that happen around you and me, they are all like a "drunkard's walk"! Many things that happen in the real world are random, just like pollen particles floating in liquid, which will continue to push one random event east or west; our life journey from campus to workplace, or This is true of the trajectory of a golf ball from the first to the eighteenth hole, and of the rise and fall of the stock market. All kinds of unexpected events will happen sooner or later, but they will eventually reach a certain place--this is what the "drunkard walking" model represents.
Many EMBA students already have workplace experience and academic expertise. This subject will be of great help to the growth of knowledge, objective thinking judgment and rational reasoning. Through the inspiration of this course, students will be able to understand what randomness and chance are. You will also think about the meaning of chance, fate, chance, and necessity, rethink various decisions and theories, and see through appearances to see the truth. Only with a broad knowledge background can we draw parallels, draw inferences from one instance and draw inferences about other cases, and stimulate our creative potential.
教科書：胡守仁譯（2009）醉漢走路，天下文化書坊
Textbook: Translated by Hu Shouren (2009) A Drunk Man Walks, Tianxia Culture Bookstore
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